2 Days Out

To: America.

From: Your old friend Steve

Date: "Time is a storm, in which we are all lost" - William Carlos Williams

Re: You know.

With two days to go, I would like to start with an explanation. 

When I started doing the early vote notes years ago, honestly, it was a way to share some thoughts on how at least this hack would view them - not from the perspective of spinning the media one way or the other, but the things that I liked and things that I didn't - and how I would be thinking about this if I was in the cockpit of a campaign.  Along the way, if I could help educate people on how Florida worked, well, that was the goal.   It isn't to try to predict things - or to be therapy for anxious members of my own party.

I've blogged a lot less this year because - one, my plate is already over-flowing, but secondly, there is a lot we don't know.  People are voting in ways they have never voted before - both in terms of volume, as well as mechanically. I said on a press call, when you look at this election, it is like cats and dogs have changed places. People keep trying to divine outcomes based on this data - which in itself is fraught with peril - but in this cycle, people are trying to do it with no baseline for comparison.  

So again, if you are reading this hoping that I am going to tell you something you want to hear, well, just like the Jacksonville Jaguars, prepare to be disappointed. 

As we begin this note, i want to start with two basic foundational things:

1. The number of Democrats and Republicans in the state is pretty much equal.
2. All things being equal, if only high propensity voters vote, Republicans will have more people vote than Democrats.   

These things were true when absentee ballots went out.  They were true when Democrats had a big lead in the initial VBM returns.  They were true as Republicans started to vote in person early.  And they are true now.  

One of my frustrations, which some may have picked up in my first memo, or on twitter, was the way that people talked about the initial vbm returns, in which Democrats ran up a big margin.  Why did Democrats run up such a big lead:  Well, high propensity Democrats voted by mail in larger percentages than ever before -- and those ballots were returned before in-person early voting began.   In other words, it wasn't a real lead - which leads to my other frustration:  the voting isn't trending Republican, nor are Democrats struggling with turnout.    People are just voting. 

Why have Republicans dominated in-person early voting?  Well, their pool of available voters was larger when it started -- and their voters, thanks in large part to the President, have chosen to not utilize vote by mail -- so they are voting in person early.   These voters were always going to vote -- just as in the past, when Republicans ran up early big leads in VBM returns -- and Democrats played catch-up:  high propensity voters vote.  This year, the thing is reversed. 

Which is why I am no more or less confident or worried about where things stand today, than i was when Democrats had a 500K voter lead.  I also think if we all do the work over the next few days, Florida can shut the door on the Trump Presidency.  But it won't be easy -- nor is it a sure thing.  It may be trite, but it literally comes down to turnout

So with that prelude, man are people voting.  It is pretty nuts.

Statewide voter turnout is over 60%.  Democrats and Republican turnout is roughly 64%, with NPA's a little lower, but starting to catch up.   One thing that is similar to previous cycles:  real partisans have quickly jumped on the opportunity to vote - and the less partisan, less politically active (but still serious voters) are coming towards the end.   I think between now and the election, the electorate will get more NPA -- and probably a little more diverse.    

For comparison, just under 52% of all registered voters in 2016 voted before the election which ended up being about 68-69% of the total turnout. 

To set the table on where we are:  Democrats have about a 95K voter lead through Saturday.  Today is the last day of in-person early voting, and though VBM ballots will be accepted until 7:00 PM on Election Day (please drop them off, don't mail them).

There are not quite 3 million voters who voted in either 16 or 18 left to vote.  Republicans have a slight edge, maybe 150K voters - and nearly 28% are NPA.  Given how active this election is, I think it is safe to assume most of these will vote.

Out of the nearly 1.7 million voters who did not vote in 16 or 18 (new registrants + sporadic voters), Democrats have the slightest of edges, but for the most part, it is pretty darn even:  34% D, 33.3% NPA, and 32.7% GOP.   If you are a Democrat looking for good news, 27% of these voters are under 30, and 45% of them are non-white.  But again, the story is the same:  voters are fired up and ready to vote.

Before i get into much else, i want to bring up Dade County.  Much has been written - and even more tweeted about it.  The challenge with being worried about turnout is, well, until 100% of people have voted, there is a turnout problem.  As I have said on the record, I would like to see more turnout in Dade -- but honestly, I want there to be robust turnout everywhere my people live.

But I want to remind folks (or inform) of two pretty basic facts:  More Hispanics in Dade are Republican than Democratic registered - because of the influence of the Cuban vote -- particularly the older Cuban vote.  Secondly, Republicans outperforming Democrats in terms of turnout percentage isn't a new thing -- it is actually a feature of the county.  In 2008 - a year that worked out OK for us, Republicans had a 5% edge in terms of partisan turnout rates (75% of GOP voted, 70% of Dem voted) -- in 2012, it was 3.5% - in 2016, it was 3%.  

I would also say to reporters who are writing criticisms about Dade should also point out that Broward is cooking with propane.  I feel pretty confident in thinking Joe Biden will carry Broward with record margins.  I can't remember an election ever where Broward turnout was higher than someplace like Pinellas on Day 3.

Also, one other rule:  Republicans just vote better than Democrats.   We can argue why that is - or how we change it, but that is the case.  

In the end, more Republicans are likely to vote than Democrats -- though Democrats do have a larger universe of sporadic voters out there - and if both parties end up with even registration, I feel very strongly Joe Biden would win here.  So if you are a Democrat, there is your challenge.

Couple of other notes:  Because so much of the electorate has voted, it looks pretty close to your run of the mill Florida election.  Orlando continues to be a bigger piece of the statewide pie.  Republicans are voting in big numbers where they should be.  Democratic turnout is also robust. 

If you believe the exits from four years ago, Trump won NPA's by 4.  Given where votes came in around the state, this is very believable.   Now one thing with the exits, they use self-party ID, which can be tricky to use as a comparison for this memo, since Florida does have actual party ID on the file.  According to the self ID, the electorate was +1 GOP, which is pretty close to what it was in reality, and both parties had essentially identical partisan loyalty (Clinton was +82 with Dems, Trump +81 with GOP).   To show how close that election, if you flip the +4 NPA from Trump to +4 to Democrats - Democrats carry Florida.

In other words, if Trump is holding his coalition with what will likely be a marginally, but not overwhelmingly GOP electorate, he will win.  If Biden is cutting into GOP and NPA support, then he's got a damn good shot here.

I'll take a deeper dive Monday - look at the final numbers, out what I will be looking for on Election Night - and offer some final thoughts.

One last thing, just as I did four years ago, I want to take a second and recognize the people who are actually turning out the vote - the organizers around the state.

There is no harder job in politics than that of a field organizer.   Not the managers, not the ops people, not even my friends in comms (sorry guys).   A lot of people who analyze this stuff over on the twitters have never pulled an 18 hour day in a field office in Polk County.  It is absolute grunt work - grinding out long hours, spending most of their day dealing with people being annoyed about this, or that - OK, being annoyed about yard signs - and now, they have the added joy of reading everyone's feedback about their work over on the ole hellsite dot com - typically with a boss like me telling them to focus on their work, and not engage.

These kids -- and I say that because honestly, most of them are kids still in college, or right out of it -- are hard working, loyal, resourceful, undercompensated, and driven by the chance to be a part of something bigger than themselves.   Most of them will never meet the candidate, most will never go to the White House if their candidate wins, and as I said four years ago, for most of them will do something different in the next chapter of their lives.   I still try to keep up with my organizers from 12 years ago, and it is really remarkable to see what they have done with their lives - and how many found their spouse on that campaign.  I think Team 27 2.0 is now north of 20 children.  I know in 08 and 12, when I needed an energy-boost after a tough day, spending 10 minutes in the field office surrounded by the energy and enthusiasm of organizers was usually all i needed.  For me, not being around this has been the hardest part of being on the IE side of the wall. 

But this year is even harder for the organizers.  The best part of the campaign, quite honestly, is the family that you become.  Your crew is more than just your co-workers:  they are your brothers and sisters, bonded together by the common experience, molded over bad coffee, cheap beer, leftover pizza, and those cupcakes and brownies that a volunteer brought in last month.  This time, the organizers have all of the headaches, without nearly as much of the fun.  Most of them are working on zoom, disconnected from their teammates, working remotely in their apartments, and without the moments that make you forget the long hours.  

So do this - if you appreciate these notes from me, take a second to find an organizer online, and thank them for what they do.  They are literally on the tip of democracy's spear.  And from this old hack, to any of the organizers reading this, know I do respect the work you do. 

With that, I will see you all on Monday.

PS:  Congratulations to the Jacksonville Jaguars for not losing today.