For the ease of answering the questions I get daily, I am going to provide a daily update -- or at least most days -- or at least try to. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask.
For the fourth consecutive day, Democrats significantly cut into the GOP advantage in votes cast. After starting the week down by some 13 points, today the margin is 9.6. By comparison, it was 18% at this point in 2010.
More importantly, votes are coming in faster than they did in 2010, so when we compare a similar number of votes cast: 1.45 million votes (Happened on Oct 26, 2010), the GOP had a 17 point advantage, and a roughly 240K vote lead in votes cast. Today, the margin is 130K, and 9.6 points.
One other key point, the GOP advantage in 2010 basically held steady over the first few days of early voting. We've seen the margin drop 4 points in 4 days.
Also, Dem participation as a share of the electorate is up 3 points from this point in the election in 2010. NPA participation is also up 3 points. GOP is down 6 from this day in 2010.
To this point - Dems are leading among 'sporadic voters' and over a quarter of Democratic voters did not vote in 2010, compared to 17% of Republican voters. Well over 30% of NPA voters are sporadic. In other words, the expansion of the electorate is helping the Democrats. In 2010, the opposite was occurring.
It is important to remember this key fact: Republicans had a 12 point advantage going into Election Day in 2010. Rick Scott won by a point, or 61,500 votes. Today it is 9.6.
And it is Florida, meaning it is just gonna be close.
PS - If you are on twitter, I release data during the day as I find things interesting. My twitter account is @steveschale