I apologize for the delay in this update. Between some travel today and welcoming a foreign contingent to Tampa from the American Council of Young Political Leaders, I have not had time at my computer. Unlike my memo writing compatriots on the other side, I am a mere volunteer without a press staff of 2700 to help with these. I also mistakenly figured a reprieve from the memos would be welcome, but based on emails and texts, back by popular demand...
The Halloween edition of The Memo:
Democrats won the day by a margin of roughly 5,000 votes. This dropped the GOP advantage to 133,000, or just about 5.2%. Yesterday it was just 138,000 and 5.9%.
On the same day of the campaign in 2010, the margin was 265,000 or 14.5%. Again for reference, Scott won by 61,500 votes in 2010, or just over 1% in an electorate that was +5% GOP. I believe we will be under that 5% edge before the first vote is cast on Election Day.
It is worth noting that yesterday, the total number of pre-election day ballots surpassed the total number voted before Election Day in 2010. This was reached three days earlier in the cycle. Going into Election Day, the GOP had an advantage of 11.9% or 271,000 votes.
Couple of highlights:
Nearly twice as many Black voters (African American and Caribbean American Floridians) have cast a ballot compared to this point in 2010. As a result, Black voters make up 2% more of the electorate at this point compared to 2010. In total, in 2010, Black voters made up 11% of all voters.
Democrats continue to show the biggest gains in areas where we need to do well: Osceola, Dade, Palm Beach and Broward Counties are the four counties with the largest shifts towards the Democrats compared to the last Governor's race.
Counties in the I-4 corridor make up all but one of the rest of the top 11: Hernando, Orange, Sarasota, Pasco, Manatee and Seminole. St. Lucie, in the Palm Beach media market is the other. These are all places where for a Democrat to win statewide, we need to either expand our 2010 margins or narrow the GOP advantages.
In addition, NPA voters have grown from 14% at this point in 2010 to 17.4% today. If this holds up, the percentage of the electorate made up of by partisans will be lower in 2010, and given the GOP traditional advantage, this is a good change for Governor Crist.
But most importantly, this election is almost over. 40 year old me should have listened to 38 year old me, who tried to say that I was too old for this stuff. All that being said, its been a honor to be in the middle of this with both Governor Crist and Gwen Graham, though mostly I am looking forward to rest.
Until tomorrow's memo, Hope everyone has a Happy Halloween.