Florida, Day 10, and it is FSU/Clemson

To:    FSU Fans, and the rest of America

From: Steve Schale

Re:     10 Days Out, and Clemson comes to Doak

*1 days since Gus Bradley should have been fired

*10 days until the election

*14 days until FSU basketball tips off.

I apologize for the delay today.  Before I wrote the first memo, I had a life planned for the last two weeks of the election.  While that has all changed, I did get up and run a half-marathon today.  After getting up at 4:30 AM and running 13 miles in the heat and south Georgia hills, yes, I am going to tell you that.

Tonight is also FSU/Clemson.  If your team needs a head coach, the guy sitting three seats over and a row down is a football genius.  If you don't believe me, just come sit by me tonight and he will tell you.

On to the story.

Florida now has over 3.25 million votes.  With the increased voter registration, I am adjusting my raw vote turnout projections, but even still, I think about 35% of all voters likely to vote have already cast a ballot.

We are also heading into the weekend.  Traditionally, Democrats do better with in-person early voting on weekends.

Friday looked like the rest of the week, with Democrats leading among in-person early voting, and Republicans leading with vote-by-mail, though the GOP did have a good day on VBM

Day five of in person early voting looked like this: 

Vote By Mail:    128,058 (+1K from yesterday) votes, GOP won (43-36-21), or just under 10K votes

In Person Early Vote: 265,310 votes (up about 1,500 from yesterday), Dems won (40-39-21) or just under 1K votes

393,368 votes were counted, and GOP won the day by about 9,000.

This brings us into total votes 3,258,034 with leading GOP up about 0.6%.

One other big picture number: There are now almost 70,000 more Democrats in Florida with a vote by mail ballot that they have not returned.  Data does show that Democrats have been returning theirs as quick, if not quicker than Republicans, but had a higher number of post-October 1 requests. Because Democrats actually have 5,000 more overall requests, the GOP VBM numbers should level out.  Even at current lower Dem return rates, the GOP advantage should reduce by about 20,000 by election day, given the Dems larger number of outstanding ballots.

That being said:

SIDE NOTE FROM STEVE TO DEMOCRATS:  I WASN’T KIDDING YESTERDAY –GET THOSE BALLOTS IN! EVERY DAY YOU DON’T.  JUST DO IT NOW.

Looking at the usual benchmarks. I am going to do a deeper dive on Monday after we see the weekend, so this will be quicker.

Hillsborough: 

Friday was like the previous three days. Democrats won both the early vote and the vote by mail tabulations, and now carry a 13,300 vote lead (+6.4%), pushed again by strong in-person early voting.  Over two thirds of the votes on Thursday came from in-person early voting, which is a good sign for Dems. And Dems are up about 600 votes on Saturday through 1 pm

And again, why Hillsborough? Hillsborough has correctly picked 19 of the last 20 Presidents.

I-4

JMart, Dems won in-person early voting in Imperial Polk County for the fifth day in a row!

Heading into weekend, here is I-4 (north to south)

Volusia: 92,850 total votes (42R-38D-20NPA)

Seminole 80,280 (44R-36D-20NPA)

Orange 180,804 (48D-31R-21NPA)

Osceola 50,673 (48D-29R-23NPA)

Polk 89,599 (42R-39D-19NPA)

Hillsborough 214,259 (43D-37R-20NPA)

Pinellas 193,042 (39.6D, 39.4R, 21NPA)

South Florida

Turnout in South Florida was solid again today.  Between in person early and vote by mail, more than 107K people voted.

From North to South:

Palm Beach 180,804 (49D-29R-22NPA)

Broward: 268,767 votes (58D-23R-19NPA)

Miami 361,679 (45D-32R-23NPA

Duuuuuuval

Republicans had a very good VBM day, but Dems edged out another EV win. 

Duval: 125,152 votes (44R-42D-16NPA)

Complete aside, President Obama comes to Jacksonville on Thursday, eight years to the date after his last rally in Florida in 2008, on November 3^rd.

Final Voter Registration:

The state just released the final voter reg numbers.

We go into the election with about 12.8 million voters.

By comparison, there were 11.9 million in 2012.

Right now, I am thinking turnout will be right around 2012 levels, so that would be just over 9.2 million votes.  I might revise this next week as we get further into early votes.

Since August, Democrats increased their voter registration advantage by just under 70,000.  The Democrats go into the election with just over a 327,000 voter advantage.

The state is now 38D-35R-27NPA

Democrats top growth counties since August:

Miami Dade (+26,343)
Broward (+18,456)
Orange (+15,545)
Hillsborough (+8,618)
Osceola (+5,046) - Near Orlando

Republican top growth counties:

Bay (+1,836) - Panama City
Okaloosa (+1,586) - Panhandle
Santa Rosa (+1,436) - Panhandle
Marion (+1,387) - between Gainesville and Orlando
Pasco (+1,342) -- north of Tampa

By ethnicity:

Black (African American & Caribbean): 13.4%
Hispanic: 15.7%
White: 64.2%
Other: 6.7%

*Keep in mind, Hispanic in Florida is underrepresented by these statistics, as it is both a self-identification.  Surveys suggest in 2012, real Hispanic was closer to 16% of voters.

One last thing, the voters who joined the rolls since August are very diverse.

Of the growth in registration, it looked like this:

White: 44.7% (+220,493)

Hispanic 24.7% (+121,771)

Black 14.7% (+72,538)

Others: 15.8% (77,591)

Tomorrow’s memo will probably be late morning, unless FSU gets blown out and I get home early, in which case it will be mid-morning, or unless they beat Clemson, which means It might come on Wednesday.