The Romney Absentee Ballot Florida 'Firewall'

As Newtmentum comes to Florida, many in the media and the GOP establishment are arguing that the Romney advantage in absentee ballots will create a firewall that will hold off Gingrich.

According to the state GOP, roughly 225,000 Republicans have voted to date. Depending on turnout, this represents between 12-28 percent of the likely GOP vote.

Rasmussen suggests that Romney has an 11 point lead among people who have voted. PPP came out on Monday night and put the Romney lead among votes already cast at just 3%.

My hunch is the Romney advantage is higher than either of these polls.

So what does Newt need to win?

Let's look at the turnout scenarios vs the potential Romney leads.

Turnout = 2008 primary levels (1.95 million)

If Romney has 25% lead in absentees, Gingrich needs to win by a 3.3% margin of remaining voters to win statewide.

If Romney lead is 22%, Gingrich must go +2.9%

If his lead is 15%, then Gingrich needs +2.3%.

If you take the Rasmussen 11 point figure, then Gingrich only needs a 1.4 point advantage going forward.

And if you take the PPP poll 3 point Romney lead on Gingrich among votes cast- which would give him a 6750 vote lead, all Gingrich needs to do is win by 0.3% among the the votes yet to be cast.

Some GOP leaders have suggested that turnout will actually be closer to the 2010 GOP statewide primary, which = just over 1.2 million voters

Under this scenario, if Romney has built a 25% lead in absentees, Gingrich needs to win by a 5.7% margin of remaining voters to win statewide.

If Romney lead is 22%, Gingrich needs +5.0%

If his lead is 15%, then Gingrich needs +3.4%.

If you take the Rasmussen 11 point figure, then Gingrich only needs just a 2.5 point advantage going forward.

And if you take the PPP poll scenario, all Gingrich needs to do is win by 0.7% among the the votes yet to be cast.

And lastly, if you split the difference between 2008 PPP and 2010 GOP statewide primary turnout, turnout will = 1.6 million voters

Under this scenario, if Romney has built a 25% lead in absentees, Gingrich needs to win by a 4.1% margin of remaining voters to win statewide.

If Romney lead is 22%, Gingrich needs +3.6%

If his lead is 15%, then Gingrich needs +2.5%.

Under the Rasmussen 11 point scenario, Gingrich to win the remaining voters by 1.8 percent to win the election on January 31.

And if you take the PPP poll 3 point Romney lead on Gingrich among votes cast, Gingrich just needs to win by 0.5% among the the votes yet to be cast.

In other words, hang on, it is going to be quite a Florida ride.