Story Lines - Florida Congressional Redistricting
Sunday, November 20, 2011 at 5:54PM As we near the unveiling of the first official Congressional redistricting maps, here are some of the interesting story lines to keep an eye out for. This list isn't meant to be exhaustive, but more the things that I am watching out for as the reapportionment and redistricting process begins in earnest in early December.
The Overall Congressional Mosaic - Currently there are three African American and three Hispanic representatives from Florida to Congress. Based solely on population, there is an argument that there should be four Black (one of which might Caribbean-American) and six Hispanic representatives.
Panhandle--What happens to "the Riviera"-- Right now, the Congressional seat (CD2) held by Congressman Steve Southerland goes to Bay County (Panama City), then scoots down US 98 and picks up a small, but highly predictable Republican number of voters in Walton and Okaloosa Counties. In order to try to comply with Amendment 6, legislators may choose to place these voters in Congressman Jeff Miller's seat (CD1), but to do so, will improve the Democratic performance of CD2 and make Rep. Southerland more open to a challenge.
Cliff Stearns, Ander Crenshaw, Corrine Brown and North Central Florida - It is hard to imagine Crenshaw (CD 4) and Stearns (CD 6) will end up with districts that look like they currently represent, however, where they lands largely a function of what the legislature does with Corrine Brown's seat (CD3). There are possibilities for Brown to win an election in a more Duval-centric district, but clearly it will be far more difficult. And what happens to Alachua County, which currently is split between Brown and Stearns, could define whether there is any chance for Democrats here.
Does John Mica end up living anywhere near his district? - More than 2/3rds of John Mica's current constituents live about a 30 minute drive up I-4 from where John Mica currently lives. The Webster/Adams/Brown/Mica districts are intertangled and converge around Winter Park, the town Mica calls home. More than likely, someone is going to end up in the real estate market. Mica seems to be the most likely candidate.
Does Orlando become home to a new Democratic seat?- Central Florida will almost certainly end up with one of the two new Congressional seats and one solution to the potential impact of the growing Hispanic community on the Republican seats in the region would be to create a district that consolidates within Orange and Osceola counties, with Congressman Webster ending up with a district further north.
Bill Young and Kathy Castor - What happens to south St. Pete? It is currently in Kathy Castor's (CD 11) district, which would be far more competitive if south St. Pete ends up in Bill Young's (CD 10) district. But on the flip-side, Bill Young's district would be far more Democratic---which will matter when he eventually chooses to not seek re-election.
Rooney and West - While I am no lawyer, the sea to shining sea district Tom Rooney (CD 16) represents would be the kind of district that might be challenged under an Amendment 6 review, so the legislature may well decide to consolidate Rooney's district on the east coast of the state, where he lives. But here is the challenge: Unless the Rooney district goes north, which impacts the district of Bill Posey (CD 15)---which may face its own pressures as the legislature unwinds Central Florida, the only direction for Rooney to add voters is to the south, which impacts Allen West. West is already going to face an enormous challenge in his re-election, and if Rooney's district ends up capturing parts of his district, re-election could be outright uphill.
Miami Dade and David Rivera - There is no need to rehash David Rivera's troubles, but there is another interesting story line in the Rivera re-election: Miami Dade county itself. The county's electoral politics are changing rapidly. In 1992, when President Bush narrowly defeated Bill Clinton in Florida, Clinton carried Dade County by roughly 20,000 votes. Eight years later, the Gore margin wasn't too much bigger, but by in 2008, then Senator Obama carried the county by 140,000 votes. Even in her loss, Alex Sink won Dade County by a margin not matched since 1990--when Dade was also a very different place. It is hard to imagine that over the next decade, Miami Dade will continue to be represented by three Hispanic Republicans. So the question becomes, is the GOP willing to sacrifice one to save two seats over the next ten years?
Reader Comments (2)
Watch them put south st. pete in Young's district and then make Castor's seat more R. They know they will probably lose Young's seat when he retires, but think they could pick up Castor's seat if they made it more conservative. Just a thought. It is really curious to see how they work this map. It's really hard to see how they hold all the R seats with registration advantage for the dems in Florida. I also wonder if Grayson wins the newly created dem seat or if there is a Latino in Orlando that can win it.
always insightful buddy, thanks for sharing.