The road to independence starts in his own back yard
Wednesday, April 21, 2010 at 11:12PM Today, the pride of Kenyon College* (also known as the Sewanee of the north), Adam Smith published an article where it was suggested that the race for the United States Senate may come down to the "I-10" corridor, where Crist might be able to break through with his independent message.
I disagree.
I assume, the underlying argument s voters will vote for Crist over the African American candidate and the Hispanic candidate. First, to the basic premise there, Barack Obama did about four points better across North Florida than did John Kerry (not to mention that the only state elected African American Republican represents one of the state's most conservative North Florida districts).
Secondly, the GOP base voter up here is more solid than arguably anywhere in the state, and lastly, Crist's current approval in North Florida, according to the recent Q poll, even with the region's strong GOP base, is lower than any other region in the state.
North Florida today is home to two party bases, and outside of Duval County and a few others, there is not a lot of persuasion going on. For example, it is hard for me to imagine a Tea Party center loike Walton County turning out big for Charlie Crist, simply because they don't want to vote for a Cuban Republican. The North Florida of 2010 is conservative, but that doesnt mean it is the North Florida of 1968.
No, in my opinion, Tampa will decide Crist's fate for the same reason that Tampa decides everything else, it is where the swing voters live, and if you have a message that plays well there, you will play well among swing voters everywhere.
Sure, other factors will play into the final equation. Crist maintains high favorables in some Democratic circles in southeast Florida, and certainly that will translate into votes. But in order to win, he needs to carry the bulk of Florida's swing vote, and he will have the benefit of being the home town kid. The region's large, and much more moderate Republican base, has supported Crist since his days in the State Senate, and are much more likely to peel off in large numbers than voters along I-10, and further down the road, in Sarasota, Lee County and Naples, where the electorate is largely made up of retired Midwestern Rockefeller-type Republican, he again can find pockets of voters who are more likely to be turned off by the extremism of the Tea Party movement than he will find in North Florida.
The numbers bear some of this out. If you look at the swing vote between Crist and Sink in 2006 (admittedly, not the best comparison, but it is something), the biggest vote swings were in Tampa market, followed closely by Orlando, then the SW Florida counties.
But more than anything, the best predictor in politics is past performance, and in Florida, there are counties (32 to be exact) that are always Republican and certain counties (7 to be exact) that are overwhelmingly Democratic, plus another 14 or so that are pretty solidly predictable (might go once out of five elections the other way)---and to make things fun, the vote margins for each party out of their base tend to be pretty similar. History says Meek and Rubio will do pretty well among their voters within their base counties.
This means there are only 11 or 12 that flip frequently from election to election, and out of those 11 or 12, only four would be considered to have large population bases: Hillsborough, Orange, Pasco and Pinellas.
And three of those are in the Tampa media market.
If Crist wins, it will be close.
And on the off chance that he pulls it out, you will only need to look to history to see how he did it: the same way everyone else has done it, by winning in Tampa.
*Thanks to politifact for catching my error. :-)
Reader Comments (2)
Steve, great quote in the New York Times regarding Governor Crist: “I’m sure he’s got to be considering in the back of his mind, if he goes this way and he wins, he’s arguably become this transformative figure in American politics,” Mr. Schale said. “I think he’s the only guy who has the potential of pulling it off.”
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