Crist gets back to his roots

For most of the last year, Crist has ineffectually tried to define himself as the real conservative in his primary against Rubio.  Clearly, it is a strategy that is going no where.  Seemingly, each new poll that comes out shows Rubio climbing and the only thing dropping like a rock in Cristworld are his own numbers.

But just in the last few weeks, he appears to be changing course, first deciding to appear with President Obama in Tampa, then staking out a more moderate terrain with his budget, then today, getting back to the tone that defined his first few years as Governor, with comments like this: 

While there is great virtue in being true to your principles, conviction must be tempered with practicality and pragmatism. Taken to an extreme, conviction becomes inflexible – even destructive. Extreme views rarely solve problems and frequently create them. Look around the globe. Can’t we agree our world would be better with less overheated rhetoric and more common sense?

The reality is Crist is never going to be able to change the hearts and minds of the most conservative elements of the GOP because his problems run far deeper than just one Presidential man-hug. 

From embracing the science of climate change to taking the principled stand in 2008 that long lines should never stand as a detriment to a citizen's right to vote, Crist has found himself at odds with his own party---hence my comments a few months back about him lacking a real base.  I might have a better chance of convincing some conservatives of my bona fides than Crist.

But in this political environment, Crist has one way to get his mojo back, and admittedly, its a hail mary:  stand up as a leader.  With people of all colors frustrated with Washington, Crist has a narrow 60 day window to wrestle some common sense into Tallahassee.  If he succeeds (and people give him credit for it), he's got a shot.  If not, he's done.  It is just that simple, which is why a few weeks back, I suggested that he simply suspend campaigning and focus on running the state, which is the only way he is going to change minds.

It may not carry him to victory, but clearly the road he was on was leading him into the desert.  So why not get back to what he knows best?

Clearly he is taking a step in a new (or really old) direction...or maybe he's two steps ahead of us and is just laying the road work to run as an independent....

(I doubt it)

Election Day is still eight months away.

Last week, a former co-worker and political commentator extraordinaire, Joy-Ann Reid penned an interesting opinion piece about the state of the top two Democratic campaigns, Alex Sink and Kendrick Meek.

In her op-ed, Reid addresses some of the frustration among Democrats about the pace of the campaigns. I hear it too, nearly everywhere I go, to which I have one basic response:  Relax.

The 2008 election, particularly for Democrats, was a non-stop event.  The sheer amount of advertising, as well as staff, created an all-consuming political environment.  But that isn't how campaigns actually work, especially in non-Presidential elections.

So to my Democratic friends, I would remind them of two things:

1.  Despite the attention paid to the Presidential campaigns, the operation in Florida didn't start until late June/early July.  Both McCain and Obama campaigns had tiny staffs in May, but neither campaign got going in earnest until well into the summer.   Heck, now President Obama didn't make his first real general election visit to Florida until July 31st.  It is only February.

2.  In the words of my friend Paul Tewes, "polls are shit."   Sure, Sink is trailing McCollum, but then again, a lot more folks know who he is.  But more importantly, the election isn't for eight months.  Both parties should remember that as late as May 1, 2008, McCain held an average lead of 12 points over Obama in Florida. 

For Democrats, Sink and Meek have plenty of time to define themselves to Floridians, assuming they have the money to do so.  This is why the uncontested party nominees (McCollum, Sink and Meek) are focusing on really the only thing they should be doing:  raising money, and all three are doing that well.  From an activist stand point, this might not be as exciting as the kind of hand to hand combat that defines the latter months of a campaign, but without the resources, they wouldn't have a shot in a state that is as big and expensive as Florida.

Want to run for Congress? Move to Central Florida.

With the census about to start in earnest, I wanted to take a look at the likely winners and losers from the next reapportionment and redistricting.  I am not even going to try to predict how that 2012 process will benefit the parties or individual members.  Certainly as anyone who has lived through one redistricting session (I did in 2002) can attest, there is very little you can predict once pen goes to paper.

However, I do believe that by tracking the 2000 census data through the most recent census population projections from last year, there are some interesting nuggets about how the map will evolve.

The number one takeaway, assuming that Florida gains only one new Congressional seat:  the new Congressional seat will likely fall somewhere between Orlando and the eastern part of the Tampa media market.  And in the unlikely scenario that Florida gets two, the Tampa and Orlando media markets will likely each be the beneficiaries of one.

But that's only the beginning.

Since 2000, Florida has experienced subtle demographic shifts.  For example, the 2000 census showed that just under 54% of all Floridians lived in one of the state's seven 'urban' counties, counties with a population of more than 750,000 (Broward, Dade, Duval, Hillsborough, Palm Beach, Pinellas, Orange).  Today, that number is 51.7%.  The shift, not surprisingly, is almost exclusively into the midsize (typically suburban/ ) counties. 

Except, unlike the rest of the country, it hasn't been due to urban flight.  For example, the three counties who have dropped the most in terms of their share of statewide population:  Dade, Broward and Pinellas all share in common one thing:  they are at or nearly at maximum density due to geographic constraints.

On the flip side, the counties that are the fastest gaining in terms of their share of statewide population:  Lee (though the failed housing market there is now leading to some retreat in numbers), Orange, Osceola, St. Lucie and Lake all share a similar trait---lots of room to grow.

So what does all this mean?

In general, shockingly little all in all.  Most parts of the state will see very little change in terms of their total representation, though that doesn't mean that everything will be the same.

First, the state house map will show the most obvious shifts.  If counties were apportioned seats strictly based on population (which we know they are not), Dade, Broward and Pinellas would likely each lose an entire seat in the house. 

On the flipside, Orlando/Osceola would gain another (and it would likely be majority Hispanic), and SW Florida would receive another, likely based in Lee County.   The lost Pinellas seat would be absorbed within the media market, but would end up far further north and east, potentially even benefiting the Villages.

In total, the Miami media market would be down two, and the Orlando media market would be up two.  Southwest Florida gains one, stealing some from the eastern side of the state.

In the State Senate, SE Florida will likely watch the power centers of a couple of their districts shift north and west, as Orlando and SW Florida grab bigger chunks of the map. 

That being said, within media markets and even counties, there are subtle shifts that will likely lead to some interesting cartography. But in the interest of space, I'll take those on at a later date.

Agree?  Disagree?  As always, let me know.

Dante Revisited: The Nine Circles of Florida Road Warrior Hell

It has been a busy couple months in the old Toyota (so old, it is pre-recall era), which makes it an opportune time to have a little fun with the blog. 

So here goes, Dante's Inferno revisited:  what the nine circles of politico hell would look like if hell was Florida's highways, destinations and airports.  As I've visited all 67 counties in the last couple years, most many times, I feel like I am pretty well suited to make these calls. 

Sometime in the near future, I'll hit the various spheres of Florida's road warrior Paradisio.  Hint:  Tampa Airport.

I hope my fellow political road warriors will weigh in with their thoughts.

1.   Political Conferences at Disney and other "Destination" resorts.   Growing up most of my life in Florida, I am a fan of Disney.  Nikole and I have been many times and love the place.  However, going there for a business is almost unfair.  You know you want to have fun and get in the Disney spirit, but you have to put on a suit and tie and play the other role, while everyone else around you is essentially care-free.   And if you aren't at Disney, Murphy's Law dictates that your political conference will probably be some place like the Fountainbleau in Miami, where you get to try to hold meetings while watching the surf.

2. Tallahassee.  I live here and it is a great place.   However, getting to and from this place is often just a tiny bit easier than getting to and from Bismarck, ND (trust me, I know this one).  As they say, Tallahassee is just one stop from the world, except that one stop is Atlanta airport (a place Dante definitely dreamed about in writing Inferno), which is the wrong way if you are headed anywhere south.  Sure, you can fly direct from Ft. Myers to Germany, which is probably the same connection you will make if you try to get from Ft. Myers to Tallahassee. Oh, and for the pleasure of one-stoping to the world, you will pay about 4 times what it costs if you lived in say, Tampa. 

3. Following a school bus on U.S. 1 in the Keys (nominated by Tom Eldon).  Going to the Keys for work is a perk of living in Florida, except getting to the Keys tends to take some work, and sometimes that work means following a school bus down Overseas Highway.  As Tom Eldon of Schroth, Eldon and Associates suggests, if this happens to you, pull off the road and go fishing for two hours, and by then, the chances are good that you won't catch the bus before you get to Key West.  Why isn't this further down the list, you might ask?  Well, because its the Keys and how bad could it be?

4. Orlando International Airport.  In the Pantheon of big airports, MCO is a pretty good one.  Well laid out, clean and easy to get around (just avoid the $5 a gallon gas station nearby).  Except when you go through security and you are in a hurry.  One day, TSA will find a special method of clearing all those massive tourist shopping bags, but until then, pull up a chair because you will be there for a while.

5. I-10.  I've probably driven I-10 at least 400-500 times in my political career.  As an interstate, it is uniquely special.  On a road where driving 70mph could be considered cruel and unusual punishment, expect to find about 75 state troopers every mile.   How many times have you been on I-10, say passing Madison going towards Jacksonville, then feel like you drive for 2-3 days, only to realize you are just getting to Live Oak?  You know who has never driven I-10?  Cell phone companies.

6. US 19 from St. Pete to Weekee Wachee.  I like Pinellas County a whole lot.  I am a big fan of St. Petersburg and Pinellas County is without a doubt home to the best grouper sandwich in Florida (Woody's).  I've spent so much time there in the last four years that they might make me start paying taxes.  In fact, it is one of the few places in Florida that I could see living in one day---as long as I could avoid US 19.  US 19 is essentially the spine of Pinellas County, connecting coastal Pasco and Hernando counties with St. Petersburg along a highway that includes 1750 traffic lights, 37 Hooters and more chain restaurants per mile than any place else in Florida, except maybe US 192. 

7. I-4.  Tampa to Orlando.  I-4 is Florida's Box of Chocolates, you never know what you are going to get.  Sometimes you leave downtown Orlando at 10:00 AM and find yourself in downtown Tampa a few minutes after 11.  Sometimes you leave downtown Orlando at 10:00 AM and find yourself in downtown Tampa a few minutes after 11---a week or two later.   On behalf of everyone who has spent most of an afternoon in a rain storm on I-4, thank you President Obama for high speed rail. 

8. I-95 from Ft. Lauderdale to Miami.  For most of the length of I-95, the driving is pleasurable, as long as your idea of pleasurable is bump drafting at Daytona.  But once you get to Ft. Lauderdale, it turns into a real adventure.  As one nominator said about the stretch, "it is seven lanes of hell, complete with thousands of drivers who apparently have made peace with God."  Hint:  pay the toll to use the express lanes in Dade County.  At least you will have orange cones to protect you from the melee.

9. The Miami International Airport.   Flying into Miami isn't all that bad, assuming you can figure out how to get to the expressway from the sand lot behind the abandoned industrial complex--also known as rental car row.  Leaving Miami on a regional jet?  Good luck.  First you have to navigate the parking lot known as Dolphin Expressway just to get there, then find your rental car return location, ride the bus to the airport, stand in line for TSA, walk halfway around the world to your gate, get on a bus to ride well out into the tarmac, get off bus and hope it isn't raining, then board your plane. 

Near misses:  Love/Hate relationship with Panera Bread, Continental's prop planes, Atlanta International Airport, the Sawgrass Mills Mall. 

Welcome back, Mr. President

In anticipation of President Obama and Vice President Biden's trip next week, now seems like as good a time as any to look at some fun political facts about Florida, Florida, Florida.

In the nation's current political alignment, especially for the GOP, Florida is a real make or break state.  There are very few scenarios where the GOP could win the White House without Florida's 27 (soon to be 28 or 29). As a result, Florida's electoral votes essentially assure a Democratic win. 

As I used to tell our young staff in 2008, it was win and you're in.

History tends to prove this point. 

Since 1928, Florida has only landed on the wrong side of two Presidential elections:  1960 and 1992 (the other big battleground, Ohio, has also been wrong twice:  1944 and 1960).  In both cases, Florida narrowly went for the GOP, while national Democrats won the ultimate prize. 

In fact, you have to go back to 1924 and the re-election of President Calvin Coolidge to find the last time that a Republican won the White House without an assist from the Sunshine State.

So if Florida is the epicenter of Presidential politics, what is the epicenter of Florida?  Simple:  Tampa, the place where the President will pay a visit on Thursday.

According to the Division of Elections, since 1948, the winner of Hillsborough County has won Florida all but one time (1960---that year, it voted for Kennedy, but Nixon won the state).

And since 1992 (the point where POTUS elections in FL became reliably competitive), the Tampa media market as a whole has selected the winner.

Year                Winner                 Tampa Market                 Statewide

92                   Bush                             +4%                            +2%

96                   Clinton                          +4%                            +6%

00                   Bush                             +2%                             Tie

04                   Bush                             +7%                             +5%

08                   Obama                          +0.5%                          +2.5% 

Certainly in 2008, the importance of the market wasn't lost on either the Obama or McCain campaigns.  We stuck our campaign state headquarters right smack in the heart of the market and made St. Petersburg the first public Florida stop of then Senator Obama's general election effort.  In fact, McCain and Obama both made four visits (and even more 'stops') to the market between August and Election Day, and sent their ticket-mate's there three times each. 

So what is it about this market?    

First, in terms of vote share, no market is bigger in Florida.  Nearly a quarter of all votes cast in a Presidential election will come from the Tampa market.  When you add the 20% that comes from the Orlando market, the importance of the I-4 corridor becomes obvious.

Secondly, I-75.  Migration to Florida, especially in the late 20th century tended to follow interstates, with the more liberal, northeastern voters migrating into southeast Florida and Midwestern voters ending up on the west coast.  As a result, while the politics of Broward look a lot like the politics of New York and Boston, the politics of Tampa feel a lot more like the more centrist and competitive politics of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin.  If you don't believe me, count the Bears and Packers fans at a Bucs game. 

Lastly, it is a little microcosm of Florida.  It has some rural ag, a growing Hispanic population (and an established Cuban population), large urban African-American centers, traditional white working class communities, and a whole lot of soccer moms.  To do well in this market, you have to have a message with wide appeal---the key ingredient to winning across the state.

So welcome back to the Tampa area, Mr. President.  Personally, I hope we will see you here lots more over the next three years.

Democrats in Florida- The Future is Bright

This is the first of many posts I am going to write about the state of the battlefield in Florida and the forward trajectory of the state's politics.

Recently, the Florida Democratic Party released the most recent voter registration numbers, which show despite all the media hand-wringing about the fortunes of Democrats across the country, that Democrats added about 40,000 more new voters in 2009 than Republicans. 

The Democrats now hold a seven point voter registration advantage over the GOP, for a raw advantage of nearly 800,000 voters.  This the largest advantage for Democrats since 1990. 

This alone is very good news for Democrats.

But the better news if you live on my side of the aisle:  There is no reason this trend should slow down any time soon.

First, the Democratic trends are most striking among younger voters (Dems hold a 16 point advantage among young voters) and among Hispanics (registering 3:1 Democratic).  In Dade County alone, between 2002-2008, the Democrats increased their voter registration advantage by more than 100,000 votes, largely on the back of changing Hispanic political behavior.

Since the last redistricting, the Democratic advantage has grown by some 500,000.  And the Democratic advantage is growing in places where the bulk of people live.

For example, as of the book closing in October 2008 (I have not seen the county by county for 2009 yet), the 25 or so counties where the Democrats made the bulk of their gains comprised some 75% of the total two-party vote in Florida. 

And even more good news for Democrats, in those counties that are electorally "swing counties" (ie- voted for Crist and Sink, or Bush and Obama), the gains are truly remarkable.  In fact, the largest voter registration gain for the GOP in any swing county is in Pasco County, where they have added roughly 2500 more voters than the GOP over the last seven years.   On the flip side, Democratic registration gains in places like Orange (plus 67.000), Hillsborough (plus 30,000) and Pinellas (plus 30,000) are all significant. 

Further, these changes are threatening to move two major counties, Orange and Dade (remember Jeb won the county twice), out of the "swing" category and into "base" Democratic counties.

Add to this, we will go into 2010 with our strongest top to bottom statewide ticket in years. 

I am going to have much more on this subject in the near future, but needless to say, from my perspective, the long term futures market for Democrats is very bright in Florida.

More on Crist's base (or lack thereof)

This weekend, both the Times/Herald bureau and the Sentinel papers tackled this issue of Crist and his base.  Now that this is the political question de jour, I wanted to see if the data backed it up.

Yesterday's dismal Jacksonville Jaguars game provided the perfect opportunity.

I went back and looked at the Rasmussen data, starting in April of 2008.  I chose Rasmussen because it provided the most easily accessible data set (While I am not a big fan of robo-polls, I don't care for the R vs D polling company question- data is data, as long as it is collected using scientific standards). 

If I could figure out how to insert a chart, I could show this visually (still working on this). But generally, Crist has generally maintained a wide delta between his overall favorables and his very favorables.  

While his overall favorables has ranged from a low of 49 (twice 7/22/08 and 10/21/09) to a high of 74 (on 12/15/08), with two exceptions, his very favorables have never moved outside of a range from 14-19%.  Even if you factor in the two spikes (in Oct 08, his VF was 22 and in Dec 08, his VF was 34), his "very favorable" average is only 22, certainly not bad, but not worthy of the untouchable status that the media has given him over the years.

Moreover, even if every single point of very favorable came from his own party (which we know is not true), Crist's historic very favorables among Republicans would still be under 50%.  Hence, he has never really had a base.   For Crist, it was only a matter of time before he faced a challenge like this.

Can he still win?  Absolutely.  He is still one of the most popular public officials in recent Florida memory.  But without a doubt, it is going to require mustering all of his political skill and motivation to reintroduce himself to GOP voters and remind them why they have stood with him so many times before. 

Then he has to do it all over again in the general.

Susan MacManus on Independent Voters

Florida's resident political scientist, Dr. Susan MacManus of the University of South Florida has written a column for the Sayfie Review looking at the demographics of Florida's independent voters.   It is definitely worth a read here:  Florida Swing Voters: A Closer Look at NPA Registrants and Self-ID'd Independents.

To me, the two most interesting data points in her paper are that these voters tend to be younger and more Hispanic than the population at large.  Not that this is in any way surprising, though I think it underscores two very important political trends for Florida in the future.  

First, as a society we are going away from traditional civic organizing. For example, citizens under 30 years old are less likely to join a group, go to church, or attend meetings than the same cohert of citizens in the 1970s. This societal shift by nature means a shift away from political party membership.  Therefore, it shouldn't be as a surprise MacManus finds that while 49% of all Florida voters under 50 are registered without party affiliation, 63% of all independents are under 50.   In addition, these voters are harder and harder to find, even as though they vote at similar levels to previous generations of younger voters.

Secondly, MacManus shows that while Hispanics comprise 12% of all registered voters, Florida Hispanics make up 18% of all independents. This trend is emblematic of the larger Hispanic population shifts in Florida, as the growth among Hispanic voters over the last few cycles has leaned significantly more towards non-Cuban Hispanics, who unlike their Cuban counterparts, do not have a traditional GOP lean.  In fact, if 2006 and 2008 showed anything, this growing segment is leaning more Democratic. 

Further, as MacManus shows, the percentage of self-identified independents is larger than the number of registered NPAs.   Part of this is the nature of politics, part of this is the nature of Florida, where so many in Florida have historical political affiliations that don't necessarily fit the Florida political paradigm (Gulf Coast Republicans from the midwest,  Panhandle Southern Democrats, etc.).

But one thing is for certain, we know that where these voters head will largely dictate where Florida goes in 2010 and beyond.

How we got to 43:43: Crist's inevitable return to Earth.

To me, the real story surrounding the Crist/Rubio Rasmussen poll has very little to do with Marco Rubio's rise and has everything to do with the one fundamental flaw in Crist's political career:  he's never had a  base.

Let me start by giving Rubio the credit he is due.  Politics is all about timing and opportunity.  Rubio is a politico of enormous talent, but it is hard to imagine if this was 2006 or 2008, that he would have had a similar level of success.  He is what his party is looking for now: energetic, bright and most importantly, ideologically pure.  Quite simply, he's become the leader the conservative movement was looking for.  But lets not forget that six months ago, people were writing him off for dead.  Moreover, the same poll that showed him tied shows him with very little name ID.  In other words, GOP voters are willing to give him a shot today, simply because he is not Charlie Crist.

Which is why this is really a story about the Governor.

Crist has lived a charmed political career.  He represented what was then a rock-ribbed GOP county in the State Senate (Pinellas) and earned great kudos--and a decent amount of statewide name ID, for taking on Senator Graham, even though he was trounced.  His first statewide win was against George Sheldon, legitimately one of the good guys, but who was hardly a household name, then two years later, with substantially more name ID, he beat Buddy Dyer for Attorney General in a race that had a lot more to do with the bottom falling out of the Bill McBride campaign than it did with Crist.  If McBride had gotten to 46 or 47%, Dyer may well have beaten Crist. 

Then in 2006, Crist took on a Democratic Party that was absolutely demoralized after four very bad cycles, beating Jim Davis in a race where he was largely running by himself.  Some reports show Crist outspent Davis by 4 or 5:1.  Yet in someways, that race foretold the future:  48% of Florida voters chose someone else, despite Crist's always high personal favorables.

Early in his term, Crist was viewed as untouchable.  But even when his approval ratings were at their most meteoric, his numbers were soft.  His "very favorables" never moved much beyond 10% of the electorate (compared to Jeb, who had almost all of his favorables in the very fav category). In other words, Florida voters knew they liked the guy, but they weren't sure they loved him, and when times were good, he never convinced the GOP (or anyone for that matter) to really embrace him.   So when the economy tanked, so did Crist.  Unlike Jeb, who easily survived the economic woes of 2001 and 2002, Crist had no well to go back to. 

Surely much of this can be traced to Crist's calculating style of governing.  He's done a masterful job over the years of positioning himself right where Florida voters are---more of a popularist than a populist.  But the tradewinds of this crazy state change just like the weather in the summer.  Florida looks nothing like the state of Crist's political birth, and the mood of the electorate today is very different than at anytime in his political career. 

Is Crist done? No.  In the last twenty-five or so years of FL Sen/Gov races, only Connie Mack, Bob Martinez and Mel Martinez have won on their first statewide try.  In a state where solid TV pushes 2 million a week, running statewide is a great predictor of winning statewide.  Further, Florida voters don't know Rubio yet, and rest assured, he will have to survive the media meat grinder.  Plus Crist is going to have plenty of money to communicate, and voters may begin to worry that Rubio can't win a general. The idea that we can say today that Crist can't win is downright silly.

But without a doubt, this is the biggest challenge of his political life and to overcome it, he will need to develop the one thing that has eluded him his whole career, a base.

Welcome

Welcome to my website.

As one might expect, this page will focus largely on the Florida political world, though it surely will spill over to other issues from time to time. 

If you would like to subscribe to these posts, you can do so by following the link on the front page. 

Please feel free to share your thoughts here, or you can always contact me at steven DOT schale AT gmail DOT com.